Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2132
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
PD 2132 · EWR → YTZ
departs 4:51 PM ET · arrives 6:30 PM EDT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.