Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
PD 581 · YYZ → MCO
departs 9:51 AM EDT · arrives 12:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±6 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
YYZ is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.