PR 123 · LAX → MNL

departs 4:13 PM PT · arrives 9:19 PM PST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MNL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MNL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PR 123 · LAX → MNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to MNL?