QF 104 · HNL → SYD

departs 11:14 AM HT · arrives 6:48 PM AEDT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SYD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SYD?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SYD

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.18 in

SYD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QF 104 · HNL → SYD

Odds over time

How late will it get to SYD?