Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

QANTAS · FLIGHT QF 22 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

QF 22 · DFW → MEL

departs 7:38 PM CT · arrives 4:38 AM AEDT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MEL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEL?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QF 22 · DFW → MEL

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEL?