QK 467 · LGA → YYZ

departs 4:26 PM ET · arrives 6:06 PM EDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 467 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?