Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2001
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2001 · SEA → YKM
departs 1:32 PM PT · arrives 2:33 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at YKM more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YKM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at YKM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YKM?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into YKM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
YKM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.