Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2116
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
QX 2116 · SNA → PAE
departs 7:22 PM PT · arrives 10:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PAE (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.