Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2152
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2152 · PUW → SEA
departs 11:27 AM PT · arrives 12:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PUW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PUW
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
11am departures from PUW are usually not late
Weather at each end
PUW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,933 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.