Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2217
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2217 · SEA → SBA
departs 6:57 AM PT · arrives 9:48 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 8%
Fri 10/30 8%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.