Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2300
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2300 · ALW → SEA
departs 4:54 AM PT · arrives 6:05 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ALW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ALW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.