Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2326
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2326 · SBA → SEA
departs 10:10 AM PT · arrives 12:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
10am departures from SBA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.