Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2411 · GEG → SFO
departs 1:55 PM PT · arrives 4:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 39%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.