Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2419 · BZN → SEA
departs 1:54 PM MT · arrives 2:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BZN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.