Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2566
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2566 · SFO → PAE
departs 9:40 AM PT · arrives 11:51 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at PAE that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PAE (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.