RV 1704 · LAS → YYZ

departs 12:02 AM PT · arrives 7:27 AM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1704 · LAS → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?