Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA ROUGE · FLIGHT RV 1709 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

RV 1709 · YUL → LAS

departs 8:01 PM EDT · arrives 10:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1709 · YUL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?