RV 1782 · HNL → YVR

departs 12:56 PM HT · arrives 9:52 PM PDT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YVR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.40 in

YVR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1782 · HNL → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?