Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 3012 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

SY 3012 · AFW → STL

departs 11:43 PM CT · arrives 1:40 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 3012 · AFW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?