Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 424 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

TA 424 · SAL → IAH

departs 12:08 PM CST · arrives 4:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAL

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 424 · SAL → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?