Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1008 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 1008 · ORD → SBA

departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 12:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1008 · ORD → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?