Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1017 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 1017 · PHX → IAD

departs 2:11 PM MT · arrives 9:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1017 · PHX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?