Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1165 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 1165 · IAD → MCI

departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 7:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1165 · IAD → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?