Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 126 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

UA 126 · IAD → FCO

departs 10:44 PM ET · arrives 12:39 PM CET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FCO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FCO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

FCO (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 126 · IAD → FCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to FCO?