Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1357 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 1357 · IAD → ATL

departs 10:31 PM ET · arrives 12:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1357 · IAD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?