UA 1365 · SNA → EWR

took off 7:37 AM PT · expected to land 3:12 PM ET (scheduled 6:56 AM PT → 3:18 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1365 · SNA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?