UA 143 · DEN → NRT

took off 12:27 PM MT · expected to land 3:02 PM JST (scheduled 12:28 PM MT → 3:50 PM JST)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to NRT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

NRT (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 143 · DEN → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?