UA 1523 · IAD → GUA

took off 6:03 PM ET · landed 7:52 PM CST (scheduled 5:38 PM ET → 8:10 PM CST)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at GUA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GUA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

GUA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1523 · IAD → GUA

Odds over time

How late did it get to GUA?