Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1579 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 1579 · DEN → LGA

departs 1:59 PM MT · arrives 7:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1579 · DEN → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?