UA 157 · GUM → ROR

took off 11:40 PM ChST · landed 12:21 AM +09 (scheduled 11:35 PM ChST → 12:58 AM +09)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ROR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ROR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at GUM that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into ROR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.17 in

ROR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 157 · GUM → ROR

Odds over time

How late did it get to ROR?