Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1585 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

UA 1585 · DEN → RAP

departs 11:11 AM MT · arrives 12:34 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RAP?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RAP (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1585 · DEN → RAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to RAP?