Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1821 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 1821 · ORD → LGA

departs 2:00 PM CT · arrives 5:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±6 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1821 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?