UA 1852 · MCO → SFO

took off 8:29 PM ET · expected to land 10:57 PM PT (scheduled 7:46 PM ET → 10:41 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

82% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1852 · MCO → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?