Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1947 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 1947 · HNL → SFO

departs 2:10 PM HT · arrives 10:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.59 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1947 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?