Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2008 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 2008 · ORD → MCO

departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 3:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±9 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2008 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?