Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2019 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 2019 · LAX → SFO

departs 4:14 PM PT · arrives 5:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2019 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?