UA 216 · DFW → SFO

took off 10:51 AM CT · landed 12:11 PM PT (scheduled 10:35 AM CT → 12:26 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 216 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?