Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2179 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Yesterday

UA 2179 · ORD → SFO

departs 4:39 PM CT · arrives 7:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2179 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?