UA 219 · ORD → HNL

took off 10:00 AM CT · expected to land 1:38 PM HT (scheduled 9:53 AM CT → 1:55 PM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 4.0 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip2.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 219 · ORD → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?