Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2456 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 2456 · MCO → IAH

departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 5:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.36 in

IAH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2456 · MCO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?