Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2463 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 2463 · IAD → MCO

departs 5:22 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±8 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2463 · IAD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?