UA 2804 · IAH → STL

took off 8:20 PM CT · expected to land 9:51 PM CT (scheduled 8:15 PM CT → 10:30 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2804 · IAH → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?