Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 309 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Yesterday

UA 309 · DFW → DEN

departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 7:33 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 309 · DFW → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?