UA 3871 · IAB → IAH

departs 12:15 PM CT · arrives 1:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAB (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3871 · IAB → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?