Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3907 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

UA 3907 · HNL → DEN

departs 8:27 AM HT · arrives 7:37 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.9 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.72 in

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3907 · HNL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?