Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 391 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Yesterday

UA 391 · BTV → DEN

departs 4:03 PM ET · arrives 6:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTV

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 391 · BTV → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?