Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 395 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 395 · IAD → DEN

departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 6:03 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 395 · IAD → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?