UA 485 · ORD → FLL

departs 9:14 AM CT · arrives 1:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,367 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 485 · ORD → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?