Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 490 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 490 · ORD → SAT

departs 9:04 AM CT · arrives 11:57 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 490 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?