Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 4 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 4 · LHR → IAH

departs 1:41 PM GMT · arrives 7:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 4 · LHR → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?